During the Spring Festival, the domestic PC market was closed, the overall smooth operation of the manufacturer's device, the middlemen and downstream factories were shut down and on holiday, the market did not follow up the transaction, and maintained a light and smooth operation during the period. In the first week after the holiday, the output of the PC industry was about 64,300 tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose to 80.79%, which was 2.71% higher than before the holiday. At present, the PC supply side is still at a high level, and its downstream recovery after the Spring Festival holiday is slow, and the PC has a long way to go to get out of the dilemma in the later stage!
The supply of bisphenol A exceeds the demand and the cost support is insufficient
Price trend of bisphenol A since January 2025
The bisphenol A market has experienced A rebound at the end of last year, and the pre-holiday bulls have gradually withdrawn, and it will take time for the market demand to recover after the holiday, and the price of bisphenol A has been blocked after entering the finishing market. After the festival, the starting load of bisphenol A gradually increased to more than 70%, coupled with the inventory accumulation during the festival, the pressure of manufacturers to go to the warehouse after the festival is greater. The release of downstream terminal demand is slow, participants maintain the accompanying interest to move goods, and the trading center of gravity fluctuates.
The inventory is high, the pressure on the supply side is obvious, the demand recovery is slow, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent
January 2025 to the present PC downstream enterprise operating rate
Since February, domestic PC manufacturers started a steady increase in load, up 3% to 81% compared with the pre-holiday, weekly production maintained at a super high level of more than 60,000 tons, the supply of goods is still sufficient, manufacturers inventory accumulation during the holiday, enterprises continue to operate before the holiday, the supply side pressure is still large. From the perspective of demand, from the current downstream consumption pattern, the overall pattern continues to be weak last year, and the procurement during the festival continues to be mainly needed, and the enterprise stock is limited, and the participants' wait-and-see sentiment is heavy. After the holiday, the terminal enterprise load is not high, only about 10% of the operating rate, down about 25%. At present, downstream manufacturers mainly digest pre-holiday raw material inventory, new single purchase is limited, and the demand side has limited support for PC spot prices.
In summary, since the holiday, PC downstream resume speed is slow, new orders are limited, manufacturers inventory raw materials digestion is slow, spot trading is difficult to volume, industry production and sales pressure is increasing, coupled with some PC manufacturers spot prices upside down, it is expected that the factory prices in the future are expected to increase. It is comprehensively expected that under the influence of supply-demand imbalance pressure, the PC market is still likely to further decline.